This is the stark warning from the chief analyst of the world’s largest shipping association, BIMCO, Peter Sand, who says container shipping demand growth has reached its peak, with no signs of a growth spurt anytime soon.

BIMCO，全球最大的国际航运协会的首席分析师Peter Sand严厉警告行业同仁，集装箱运输需求的增长速度已达到峰值，没有任何迹象表明需求增长速度会进一步加快。

Seaborne container volumes grew by nearly 5% in 2017, a figure helped along by the restocking of inventory, according to Mr Sand. For the coming year, BIMCO is expecting slightly lower growth of 4%-4.5%. But with global GDP growth expected to be limited to a maximum of 4% for the foreseeable future, there is little scope to go any higher according to Peter Sand.

Peter Sand说，由于各国补充库存，2017年集装箱海运量增长了近5％。BIMCO预计来年集装箱海运量增长率将处于4％-4.5％之间，略低于2017年。全球GDP增长速率预计将于4%封顶，在可预见的未来该增长速度不会进一步走高。

Peter Sand

Chief Shipping Analyst, Denmark BIMCO

BIMCO丹麦总部首席航运分析师

“This all stems from how, over the past decade, most of the world has invested too little in expanding the growth potential for the future.”

 “这一切都源于过去十年来，大部分人对真正刺激航运增长的因素投入太少。”

His advice for shipowners and carriers is not to wait around until the macroeconomic stimuli improves. Rather, they should act now. Mr Sand says carriers will need to work on fleet management to cultivate company profitability and that likewise should follow for the wider market.

他对船东和承运人的建议是：他们应即刻采取行动，而不是等到宏观经济改善才有所作为。 Peter Sand先生说，承运人应控制船队规模以提升公司的盈利能力，同样还应着眼于更广阔的市场。

“  “Whether carriers are successful or not in the future is in their hands,” he adds.

Mr Sand’s comments come in response to the latest container market report, published on a quarterly basis alongside other sector analysis covered by BIMCO in dry bulk and oil tankers. These analyses are part of the wider market intelligence offered by BIMCO to extend value for its members, in addition to the practical guidance and standard contracting it is more widely known for.

以上评论是Peter San先生针对BIMCO最新发布的集装箱市场报告做出的。该报告每季度发布一次，同期发布的还有BIMCO针对干散货和油轮运输板块的分析报告。BIMCO拥有强大的航运市场智库来为会员提供增值服务。BIMCO不仅提供市场分析，还为行业同仁提供其广为人知的操作指南和标准合同。

The containers report is compiled using third party information but also primary data, collected by Mr Sand and his small team of junior analysts.

BIMCO集装箱市场报告综合了第三方信息和基础数据，这些资料由Peter Sand先生和他领导的分析师团队共同搜集。

“ “We think very hard about the market when painting our picture,” 

“在编制报告的过程中，我们竭尽所能地思考集装箱市场行情。” ”

For the container market, the profitability picture is likely to be unchanged. 

集装箱市场的盈利水平很可能保持现状。

The container shipping market has always been a marginal profit business, you need enormous scale, you need to compete on freight rates and you need to cut costs.

一直以来，集装箱市场的利润很微薄。集装箱承运人需要经营规模巨大的集装箱船队，打运费战，还要削减成本。

If you look at all the main figures of top-line growth and profits, it is all a price game, which never really hammers home a huge profit when looking at the money invested in running such a large fleet.

纵观全球顶级集装箱承运人的主要贸易增长和利润数据，可以发现就是一场价格博弈。与运营如此庞大的船队需要的投资成本相比，这些顶级集装箱承运人从来没有获得可以比拟的巨额利润。

Even in the past decade they [carriers] were still not massively profitable, so there will be no return to the good old days.

即使在过去的十年中，他们（承运人）仍然没有大量盈利，所以集运市场不会重现往日荣光。

Instead, he says a new era could develop when lower levels of supply and demand growth become the norm, yet profits stay marginal.

相反，他表示，当低水平的供需增长成为常态时，集运市场会迎来新时代，但承运人所获利润仍然微薄。

Mr Sand’s subdued outlook for the liner industry is perhaps surprising given his long affinity and love for North London football club Tottenham Hotspur. Its long-suffering fans are well regarded as ever the optimists, despite not winning England’s top flight division for more than 50 years. However, Mr Sand says that his training as an economist has ensured he is a cynic by nature.

Peter Sand 是北伦敦足球俱乐部托特纳姆热刺的球迷。由于这支球队超过50年没有打败英国Top Flight Division队，该队球迷常常被认作“长久乐观者”。然而，Peter Sand先生对集装箱运输业预期却是消极的，令人惊讶。不过，Sand先生说，作为经济学家的素养使其求真务实。

“ I want to know what the data is all about. It runs through my veins.

Despite having a day job that involves studying the container shipping industry for less than 10 years, Mr Sand has experienced perhaps the most tumultuous period in its more than 60-year history.

尽管Peter Sand从事集装箱运输研究不到10年，但他经历了或许是近60多年航运史上最动荡的时期。

Surviving the global financial crash, carriers quickly returned to the yards as banks started to reissue loans. But too many ships came off the ramps too soon, plummeting the industry into a period of unprecedented overcapacity in late 2015, culminating in the following year, which witnessed container shipping’s biggest casualty to date, Hanjin.

随着银行开始重新发放贷款，承运人在历经全球金融危机之后很快满血复活。但由于太多的新船投入市场，集运业在2015年下半年陷入前所未有的运力过剩时期，且市场运力在次年达到顶峰。这期间集运市场见证了迄今为止最严峻的班轮公司破产事件——韩进破产。

But the good news is that the recent bounce back in demand shows at least the worst is over, according to Mr Sand.

但好消息是，最近集运市场的需求反弹显示至少最黑暗的时期已经过去。Sand先生说。

If we judge this by freight rates, 2016 was the low point, so we are past the abyss. Markets are improving.

如果我们通过集运业运价水平来判断，2016年运价跌至历史最低点，从这点看我们已经渡过低谷。市场正在好转。

“ While the glut has subsided, from an analytical view, and indeed from an industry perspective, there is little need for more capacity.”

尽管供给过剩已经有所缓解，但无论从市场分析的角度还是从行业的视角来看，集运业几乎没有增加运力的必要。

The sector is still awash with tonnage.

集运板块仍然运力过剩。

Although strong demand growth last year helped to absorb much of the idle fleet, which was “a very positive development for the market”, demand growth in 2018 is forecast to climb comparatively to the fleet. And thus only minimal gains will be achieved in rebalancing the market this year.

虽然去年增长强劲的运输需求有助于吸收大部分闲置运力，显示“市场非常积极的走势”，但2018年的需求增长速度将与运力增长速度持平。 因此今年市场供需再平衡后，承运人只能获得微薄的收益。

“Fundamentally, there is no more tonnage needed. There is low utilisation across the fleet and liner networks are currently running with two, three or even four more ships than they were a decade ago, which has seen slow steaming become an integral part of global networks to ensure of lower costs.”

“从根本上说，集运业不需要增加任何运力。集装箱船队运力利用率还很低，而当前班轮航线上投入的船舶却比十年前增加了两艘，三艘甚至四艘。这样做的结果是国际班轮航线上的船舶必须低速航行来控制低成本。”

According BIMCO, in excess of 1m teu is expected to join the container shipping fleet in 2018. This is despite recently lowering its full-year supply growth forecast on account of deliveries being pushed back into 2019. 

尽管最近一些新船被推迟到2019年交付，年集运市场供给增长率预计有所下滑，但BIMCO预计2018年将仍有超过1百万TEU运力投入市场。

The boxship fleet increased by 1.2% in the first month of 2018 alone to more than 250,000 teu, equal to the entire fleet expansion of 2016 and the highest inflow of capacity since 2010.

仅在2018年的第一个月，集装箱船队规模就增加了1.2％，超过25万TEU，相当于2016年全年船队的增长，还是自2010年以来规模最大的一次运力投放。

Although this supply influx included plenty of small feeder units, it also comprised five ultra large containerships with a capacity of 20,000+ teu.

虽然这些新投入的运力包括许多小型支线船，它还包括5个2万以上 TEU超大型集装箱船的投入。

“ “The obvious choice from an operational perspective will be on longhaul transpacific services, but it still seems that for liners and ports, it does not work to bring ULCs to the US west coast, because of the Jones Act, cabotage restrictions and of course labour issues.” ”

“从操作的角度来看，很明显这些大型集装箱船可以投放到跨太平洋航线。但对于班轮公司和港口经营人来说，由于琼斯法案，美国西海岸运力保护和劳动力等问题，大型船不适合投放到该航线。

The raised Bayonne Bridge has increased the attractiveness of sending big ships to the US east coast 

加高的巴约讷大桥吸引更多船舶停靠美国东海岸。

Despite being far from ideal in terms of optimisation, the most likely destination for these surplus vessels will be on Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-Middle East loops and strings, according to Mr Sand. However, he also makes the case in point that the raising of the Bayonne Bridge in New York, allowing ULCs access to Port Newark, has also increased the attraction of sending larger ships to the US east coast through the Suez or round the Cape of Good Hope from the Far East.

据Peter Sand称，尽管大型船船队优化还不尽如人意，这些多余的船舶最有可能投放在亚洲 - 地中海以及亚洲 - 中东往返航线上。不过，他也表明，纽约巴约讷大桥兴建成功后，将允许超大型集装箱船进入纽瓦克港口，这也吸引了更多船舶从远东出发，经苏伊士运河或绕过好望角抵达美国东海岸。